What are the odds of a U.S. strike against Syria? 15 key questions answered
Syrian civil war in photos
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| A Syrian soldier walks down a street in Damascus on Saturday, August 24. |
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| Syrian rebels claim pro-government forces used chemical weapons to kill citizens outside Damascus on Wednesday, August 21. People inspect bodies in this photo released by the Syrian opposition Shaam News Network. |
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| People search the rubble of a bombed building in Aleppo, Syria, on Friday, August 16. |
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| Syrian Army soldiers patrol a devastated street in Homs on Wednesday, July 31. |
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| Free Syrian Army fighters move through a hole in a wall in Khan al-Assal on Monday, July 22, after seizing the town. |
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| A rebel fighter walks past swings in a deserted playground in Deir al-Zor, Syria, on Sunday, July 21. |
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| A rebel fighter speaks with a fellow fighter through a hole in a wall in Deir al-Zor on July 21. |
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| A Free Syrian Army fighter casts a shadow on a wall as he carries his weapon in a shelter in Deir al-Zor on Thursday, July 18. |
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| Yahya Sweed, 13, is comforted by his father as he lies on a bed in Kfar Nubul on Tuesday, July 16. The boy was injured by shrapnel, resulting in the amputation of his right leg. |
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| A rebel fighter naps in a trench about 300 feet from the Syrian government forces' positions along the highway connecting Idlib with Latakia on Monday, July 15. |
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| A rebel fighter uses a hole in the wall of a destroyed school to aim at Syrian government forces in the Izaa district of Aleppo on Sunday, July 14. |
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| A Free Syrian Army fighter uses a mirror to scope out snipers loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo on Friday, July 12 |
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| A Free Syrian Army fighter stands over a boy who was injured during shelling in Al-Bara on Monday, July 8. |
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| Members of the Free Syrian Army fire a homemade rocket toward regime forces in Deir al-Zor on Sunday, June 16. |
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| Syrian rebels leave their position in the northwestern town of Maaret al-Numan on Thursday, June 13. The White House said that the Syrian government has crossed a "red line"with its use of chemical weapons and announced it would start arming the rebels. |
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| Forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad are seen near Qusayr on Thursday, May 30. |
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| Syrian rebels take position in a house during clashes with regime forces in the old city of Aleppo on May 22 |
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| Syrian army soldiers take control of the village of Western Dumayna north of the rebel-held city of Qusayr on Monday, May 13. Syrian troops captured three villages in Homs province, allowing them to cut supply lines to rebels inside Qusayr town, a military officer told AFP. |
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| Rebel fighters fire at government forces in the northern Syrian city of Aleppo on Sunday, May 12. |
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| Searchers use a flashlight as they look for survivors among the rubble created by what activists say was a missile attack from the Syrian regime, in Raqqa province, Syria, on April 25. |
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| A Kurdish fighter from the "Popular Protection Units" (YPG) takes position inside a building in the majority-Kurdish Sheikh Maqsood area of Aleppo, on Apri. 21. |
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| People walk past destroyed houses in the northern Syrian town of Azaz on Sunday, April 21 |
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| Free Syrian Army fighters take positions prior to an offensive against government forces in the Khan al-Assal area, near Aleppo on Saturday, April 20. |
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| Men inspect damage at a house destroyed in an airstrike in Aleppo on April 15. |
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| Syrian and Kurdish rebel fighters walk in the Sheikh Maqsud district of Aleppo on April 14. |
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| A female rebel monitors the movement of Syrian government forces in Aleppo's Sheikh Maqsud neighborhood on Thursday, April 11 |
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| A rebel runs to avoid sniper fire from Syrian government forces in Aleppo on April 11. |
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| Syrian rebels observe the movement of Syrian government forces around Al-Kendi hospital in Aleppo on Wednesday, April 10. |
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| Rescue teams and security forces check out the scene of a deadly car bomb explosion in Damascus on April 8. |
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| The fighting has taken a toll on buildings in Aleppo's Saladin district, seen here on April 8. |
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| A Syrian rebel runs for cover in Deir ez-Zor on April 2. |
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| A rebel checks for snipers across the street toward the Citadel in Aleppo, Syria, on Saturday, March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper. |
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| A Free Syrian fighter mourns the death of a friend in Aleppo on March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper. |
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| A Syrian opposition fighter runs for cover from Syrian army snipers in Aleppo on Wednesday, March 27. |
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| A Syrian girl covers her face to protect herself from fumes as a street covered with uncollected garbage is fumigated in Aleppo on Sunday, March 24. |
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| A Syrian man and his family drive past damaged buildings in Maarat al-Numan, on Wednesday, March 20. |
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| Syrians carry the body of a Syrian army soldier during a funeral ceremony in Idlib province on Tuesday, March 19. |
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| Syrian rebels take position in Aleppo, the largest city in the country, on March 11. |
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| Syrian men search for their relatives amongst the bodies of civilians executed and dumped in the Quweiq River on March 11. |
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| A Free Syrian Army fighter looks back as smoke rises during fighting between rebel fighters and forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad on the outskirts of Aleppo on Saturday, March 2 |
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| Columns of smoke rise in Barzeh after heavy shelling on Friday, August 23. |
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| A young Free Syrian Army fighter is reflected in a mirror as he takes position in a house in Aleppo on Thursday, August 22. |
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| Rebels move around a building in Aleppo on August 22. |
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| People search for belongings in rubble in Raqqa, Syria, on August 29. |
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| Free Syrian Army fighters launch a rocket toward forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Deir Ezzor on August 29. |
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| A Syrian Kurd uses hay to hide another woman in a training session organized by the Kurdish Women's Defense Units on Wednesday, August 28, in a northern Syrian border village. They're preparing if the area comes under attack. |
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| Free Syrian Army fighters escort U.N. vehicles with chemical weapons experts on August 28 through a site of a suspected chemical weapons attack outside Damascus. |
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| A Free Syrian Army fighter takes position behind sandbags in the old city of Aleppo, Syria, on Tuesday, August 27. |
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| A U.N. team leaves its Damascus, Syria, hotel in a convoy on Monday, August 26. The team was to investigate an alleged chemical attack that killed hundreds last week in a suburb of the Syrian capital. Sniper fire hit a vehicle used by the U.N. chemical weapons investigation team multiple times Monday, according to the United Nations.
When President Barack Obama said this weekend that bombing Syrian targets is the right thing to do, and then asked Congress to approve it, the international crisis took a turn toward a fierce domestic battle.
There are so many moving parts to this complicated story that it can become quite difficult to keep up.
Let this Q&A bring you up to speed on the dizzying developments.
is the U.S. going to war with Syria?
No -- at least not yet. Even though Obama said he wants to strike Syrian targets after the regime allegedly used chemical weapons on a rebel stronghold last month, he says he wants to wait forCongress' blessing first.
When will Congress decide?
Not anytime soon. Lawmakers won't be back in Washington until September 9. But the Senate Foreign Relations Committee says it'll hold a hearing on Syria this Tuesday.
Can't lawmakers be called in earlier?
They can, for an emergency debate. But Obama said he won't ask for that. Gen. Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, says it's fine to wait. According to officials, Dempsey told the president a delay won't jeopardize a military strike.
Will Congress support Obama?
Obama might be able to count on the Senate, where the Democrats hold a slim majority. The question is, will the Republican-dominated House go along? Lawmakers agree that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's alleged use of chemical weapons is a travesty. But they also don't want a repeat of Iraq.
Where exactly does the hesitation lie?
Some, like Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, say the U.S. should act only if there's a clear threat to its national security. Others, like Republican senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham, say airstrikes won't go far enough. They want al-Assad removed from power.
Does Obama really have to wait for Congress' green light?
Technically, no. The 1973 War Powers Act allows the president to launch military action, but he must notify Congress within 48 hours. But just because he can doesn't mean he will. "While I believe I have the authority to carry out this military action without specific congressional authorization, I know that the country will be stronger if we take this course, and our actions will be even more effective," he said Saturday. "We should have this debate, because the issues are too big for business as usual."
But didn't he order airstrikes in Libya in 2011 without congressional approval? How is Syria different?
In Libya, the U.S. was backing NATO action. In Syria's case, there's been no U.N. Security Council resolution calling for an intervention. If the U.S. goes in, it would be going in unilaterally.
What's the U.N. saying?
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon says he'll go before the Security Council after a team of U.N. inspectors -- who've been on the ground investigating the alleged attack -- presents its report. But it could take the team up to three weeks to analyze the evidence. And even then, it'll only say if there was a chemical attack, not who was behind it.
So would the U.S. really have no foreign support?
British Prime Minister David Cameron called for military action against Syria -- only to have his hopes quashed when lawmakers narrowly voted it down. French ministers will meet Monday to discuss Syria, and hold a debate two days later. "France cannot act alone," its interior minister said Sunday. "We need a coalition."
German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said the time gained waiting for U.S. congressional approval "must be used to reach a common position of the international community within the U.N. Security Council." In another tweet, he said that the results from the U.N. inspectors' visit to Syria "must be sped up."
How do Americans feel?
A poll released last week showed almost 80% of Americans think Obama should get congressional approval first. And after his announcement Saturday, anti-war protests sprouted up across the country -- including one in Los Angeles that drew hundreds.
And what about Syria. How does it feel about all of this?
The Syrian government has said it didn't use chemical weapons in the August 21 attack. It says jihadists fighting alongside Syrian rebels used them to turn global sentiment against the regime. Syria's prime minister says the country's army is on "maximum readiness and fingers are on the trigger to confront all challenges."
What about the Syrian opposition?
A major Syrian opposition group, the Syrian National Coalition, said it was disappointed by Obama wanting Congress' permission. "We can't understand how you can promise to help those who are being slaughtered every day in the hundreds, giving them false hope, then change your mind and say 'Let's wait and see,'" the group told CNN.
And the Local Coordination Committees in Syria, another opposition group, lamented the notion that a U.S. strike would be limited.
"A limited strike to merely warn Assad today will lead to nothing but his increase in violence, as well as to his complete confidence that no one would prevent him from killing," the group said in a statement. "In the end, no one will pay the price but the Syrian people."
How exactly would U.S. carry out an attack?
No one is calling for boots on the ground. Five U.S. warships with Tomahawk cruise missiles are waiting in the Mediterranean Sea. The Tomahawk has a range of about 1,000 miles. It can loiter over targets, circling for hours, and can be reprogrammed midflight to change course. Yes, each costs about $1.2 million, but they can be fired from quite a distance. This means no one has to get within range of Syrian fire.
Could Syria strike back?
Syria has some anti-ship missiles -- but they have a range of only 62 to 186 miles, says Edward Hunt, a senior analyst at IHS Jane's. It also has a number of Scuds and similar surface-to-surface weapons, but these are not designed to be used against moving targets such as U.S. warships, Hunt said.
How are the neighbors reacting?
Security is tight in Lebanon, where one in six is now a Syrian refugee. In Israel, there's been a rush on gas masks because residents fear that Syria could target Israel for retaliation. And Jordan, a key Western ally, says it won't be a launchpad for a strike.
This is all a lot to digest. Give me the takeaway.
A U.S. strike against Syria is not imminent. And even though Obama can launch a military attack unilaterally, he'd prefer to have Congress' approval first.
he Obama administration pushed forward Sunday on a new path toward military action in Syria, urging Congress to supportthe president's call.
Tests found signatures of sarin gas in blood and hair samples collected from the Damascus site of an alleged chemical weapons attack, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Sunday on CNN's State of the Union.
The samples were collected separately from a United Nations investigation into the August 21 attack and provide further proof that the Syrian regime attacked its own people, Kerry said.
With "each day that goes by, this case is even stronger," he said, arguing that the United States must act.
"If you don't do it, you send a message of impunity," Kerry said. Iran, North Korea, and Hezbollah "will look at the United States and say 'Nothing means anything' -- that's what's at stake here," he said.
Syria denies using chemical weapons on its people and blames the rebels.
Even as Kerry called the evidence "overwhelming" Sunday, the United Nations argued that world leaders should wait until U.N. investigators determine whether chemical weapons were used.
"The U.N. mission is uniquely capable of establishing in an impartial and credible manner the facts of any use of chemical weapons," Martin Nesirky, spokesman for Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, said repeatedly at a news conference.
So when will the results be ready? The U.N. won't give a timeline, Nesirky said. "It's being done as fast as it is possible to do within the scientific constraints."
Samples will be delivered to laboratories Monday, he said.
The investigation involves a strict chain of custody and clear guidelines, he said, adding that two Syrian government officials monitored the process.
But even when it's done, the U.N. will only say whether chemical weapons were used -- not who was responsible.
Obama's last-minute Syria switch
U.S. military action appeared imminent until Saturday, when Obama announced he would first seek lawmakers' approval.
After signaling he was on the verge of delivering a strike against Syria, Obama made a last-minute decision Friday evening to seek congressional authorization before any military action, senior administration officials told reporters Saturday.
"While I believe I have the authority to carry out this military action without specific congressional authorization, I know that the country will be stronger if we take this course, and our actions will be even more effective," Obama said Saturday. The 1973 War Powers Act technically allows him to strike without such approval.
Lawmakers officially come back from recess on September 9.
But some members of Congress arrived on Capitol Hill Sunday for a classified briefing on Syria with White House, State Department and Pentagon officials.
Many of them remained skeptical -- and undecided, CNN's Dana Bash reported.
Sen. John McCain told CBS' "Face the Nation" that Obama had invited him to a Monday meeting at the White House to discuss the next steps in Syria. McCain, who has been pushing for military intervention in Syria, said he had questions for the president.
"I want to find out whether there is a plan and a strategy. I want to find out whether this is just a pinprick that somehow Bashar Assad can trumpet that he defeated the United States of America," McCain told CNN. "But I will say that if Congress overrules a decision of the president of the United States on an issue of national security, that could set a catastrophic precedent in the future. It would be a very dangerous precedent to be setting."
Supporters and opponents criticize move
While some praised the president for giving Congress a chance to weigh in, Obama's decision quickly drew criticism from many on both sides of the debate over whether to strike Syria.
A key group of Syrian dissidents said it was surprised and concerned by Obama's new approach.
"We can't understand how you can promise to help those who are being slaughtered every day in the hundreds, giving them false hope, then change your mind and say let's wait and see," the Syrian National Coalition said.
Iran, a staunch supporter of the Syrian regime, warned the United States will pay a price if it strikes Syria.
Even the slightest attack by the United States against Syria will result in dire consequences, Iranian Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Naqdi said, according to the state-run FARS news outlet. The agency did not specify what those consequences would be.
The shift to ask for approval from Congress left some analysts scratching their heads.
"The decision-making has been so confused and muddled that it's difficult to put the word 'wise' in front of anything they're doing right now," CNN's Fareed Zakariasaid on Sunday. "The administration has hesitated between nonintervention and intervention, and it is caught between those two."
The Obama administration, Zakaria said, "seems to want to have it both ways, but it can't."
Others praised the president for taking a step to get more buy-in at home and abroad.
"Frankly, I think he looks prudent, and I don't doubt his resolve on this," John Negroponte, who served as director of national intelligence for two years under President George W. Bush, told CNN's State of the Union. "I don't think he's looking for an excuse to get out from a box or a situation that he painted himself into."
Sarin allegedly used previously in Syrian civil war
World leaders have said previously that sarin has been used in the Syrian civil war.
In April, the United States said it had evidence sarin was used in Syria on a small scale.
In May, a U.N. official said there were strong suspicions that rebel forces used the deadly nerve agent.
In June, France said sarin had been used several times in the war, including at least once by the Syrian regime.
U.S. lawmakers are deeply divided on what the United States should do after the purported chemical weapons attack on civilians August 21, which killed hundreds of people in rebel strongholds.
British intelligence had put the number of people killed in the attack at more than 350.
On Saturday, Obama said "well over 1,000 people were murdered."Kerry on Friday cited a death toll of 1,429, more than 400 of them children.
Global debate surges over Syria
It's unclear how much international support the United States would have if it chooses to attack Syria.
At an Arab League foreign ministers meeting in Cairo on Sunday, Saudi Arabia called for international action.
"The Syrian regime has crossed all the lines with its tyranny. ... It's time for us to ask (the) international community to carry its responsibility and put an end to this tragedy that is entering its third year," Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal said.
"The Syrian regime has lost its legitimacy within the Arab world and internationally," he said.
Egypt said it was opposed foreign intervention in the Syrian crisis. "We have always warned that Syria might be a prey for a foreign intervention that we rejected and continue to reject, regardless of its motives and source," Egyptian Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy said at the Arab League meeting.
Britain has voted against taking any military action in Syria, and France said it won't act without the United States as a partner.
German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle tweeted Sunday that the time gained waiting for U.S. congressional approval "must be used to reach a common position of the international community within the U.N. Security Council."
Amid the debate over whether to strike Syria, U.S. authorities are tightening domestic security measures. The FBI and the Department of Homeland Security are warning of a higher risk of cyberattacks after months of disruptions by hackers known as the Syrian Electronic Army, and authorities say more attacks are likely.
Syria on 'maximum readiness'
Syria's prime minister appeared unfazed by the threat of foreign intervention.
"The Syrian Army's status is on maximum readiness and fingers are on the trigger to confront all challenges," Wael Nader al-Halqi said, according Syrian state-run TV.
Maria Saadeh, a member of Syria's parliament, told CNN on Sunday that she sees no justification for a U.S. strike on Syria.
"There is no legitimacy to make this attack," she said, accusing rebel groups of using chemical weapons and committing other crimes against humanity.
The Syrian government has denied that it used chemical weapons in the August 21 attack, saying that jihadists fighting with the rebels used them in an effort to turn global sentiments against the regime.
Syrian state media have been packed with critiques of the U.S. position since Obama's announcement Saturday. An editorial in the state-run Al-Thawra newspaper Sunday said that Obama had declared "the beginning of a historic American retreat."
Meanwhile, the opposition Syrian National Coalition issued a statement aimed at pushing U.S. lawmakers to take action.
"The Syrian National Coalition calls on the American congress to carry their historical responsibility towards the Syrian people and take the right decision to support the American government approach to stop the killing machine of the Syrian criminal regime," the statement said.
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